The "Dream" Budget...

"Dream" is what makes a common man live in this world, a world full of unprecedented surprises…

I am an "aam aadmi" of this nation.

As a child I dream to get my basic education...
As an adult I dream to get a job and work for this country…
As a "old man" I would like to retire and live a comfortable life…

Everybody in this country has some or the other expectations including the very basic needs of the life. But isn't there a system which will make one realize at least some of these dreams...
I think the answer to this is lies in the one of the most important event in the economic and financial world .i.e. the "Union Budget".

What is the Budget?
Budget is a summary of intended expenditures along with proposals for how to meet them. It contains the government of India's revenue and expenditure for a particular fiscal year. It also provides guidelines for managing future investments and expenses.

What impact does the Budget have on the common man or the economy and what should we expect in Budget2008 ?
Well it almost impacts each and every one of us as well as every sector of the economy. However I would like to touch upon some of the key areas here:

Education:
I think education is a key to the success of any society. For a country with more than a billion population we have a great potential to become the knowledge capital of this world .However we still have lot of challenges around this. We are still struggling to increase the literacy rate in many of the states (currently at 65-70%) . The primary education is still a concern for a lot of children, most of which, are the victims to child labor. At each level the curriculum and syllabus is still a concern. The poor and the middle class still struggle to pay for the fees at various levels of education. “Brain Drain” is still a concern.

But I think converting these challenges into opportunities depend on how fast we adapt to the changing environment & implement the much needed educational reforms. The budget should address all these challenges.
The government should encourage primary education and should concentrate on making education reach to every child in this country. The govt. should also focus on improving the infrastructure of many of the govt. institutes and should implement policies/schemes so that the poor/middle class of this nation is able to get the quality education at all levels. IIT’s and IIM’s should be allowed to start multiple campuses anywhere in India with or without private partners who bring in finance and other expertise.

Increased expenditure towards education reforms has to be one of the key expectations from this budget. Ultimately the objective of the education is to replace an empty mind with an open one and make the society a better place to live.

Agriculture:
With the agriculture sector growing at rate around 3-4% it is still a laggard as compared to the other sectors of the economy. A large part of Indian population still derive their livelihood directly from agriculture. A success of an agriculture season is still defined by the monsoon . All this make us believe that agriculture does play an important role in the growth of the economy.To make it really count the govt. should focus on increasing the agricultural productivity ,increasing the rural credit for the farmers, encourage investments in the agriculture sector thereby making agriculture a cornerstone of the Indian economy.

Inflation & Growth:
The prices of essential commodities are sky rocketing and this is affecting the life of "aam aadmi".With inflation at 6% what really one can do ?
Just to mention few....I think keeping the demand in mind if we really focus on the supply side of the equation and try to address the deficiencies we will be able to manage inflation in much more effective way. Just to give an example if we improve the Public distribution system in place & encourage agriculture to meet the demand we can really manage the prices of essential commodities.
The Budget should aim at moderating the inflation without affecting growth of the economy ( just look at China which is growing at 11% with just under 2% inflation).

All in all I wish Mr. Chidambaram should put his thinking cap on and orchestrate a successful budget by taking necessary actions to meet the expectations .

At the end I hope that an "aam aadmi" of this nation should be able to live up to his dreams...

Note:The above blog is also available @ http://www.ibnlive.com/blogs/1500/contest/view.html

“Taare” zameen par...

Warning: Not for the faint hearted !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It was Tuesday morning ,10.00 am to be precise , a working day for the Indian markets and yet the NSE was not trading…Surprised !!!!!!!!!!
If you are a faint hearted this one is not for you. The Sensex hit the lower circuit(4th time in its history) in the early trade suspending BSE/NSE trades for an hour , thanks to the recession fears looming from the US economy on the back of swelling discouraging numbers on jobs, consumer spending and housing. It’s almost a universal crash. All the global indices have plunged into the sea of red in the past couple of trading sessions. The start of 2008 has seen sensex tumbling from 21k to 15k levels just within a matter of few trading sessions. Billions of rupees washed out in few days.

A question to ask here : As an investor what should one do?
Well as “History repeats for itself” are lots of lessons to learn here:

Don’t just buy . Invest & Engage yourself in the business.
Investing is not just buying and selling stocks. If you like some business don’t just buy , invest & engage yourself in the business. Follow the business, evaluate the performance and think as if you are having a stake in the business. This will not only help u in getting more information but will help you in making informed decisions. Remember that over the long term the returns on the investments are much more significant in value.

Always Stay rational in an irrational world.
Markets have seen the irrational exuberance in the past 6 months or so (which is not new to the markets). We have seen the Sensex making record highs in late 2007 almost every month. Paper stocks were getting valued beyond anyone’s imagination. The “rational” of the business was kept aside and the price was getting traded irrationally .Sentiments were driving the markets in some cases rather than the fundamentals. If you look at the history of the markets it has its own way of punishing such punters and when it does that you will just see the carnage on the streets as we have witnessed in the past sessions. However you will always find value in a bull/bear markets no matter what the scenario is . It’s just a matter of being patient and staying rational.

Evaluate before making commitments and always take informed and responsible decisions:
Risk comes into picture only when you don’t know what you are doing.
Today the world is a global village and its prudent to stay informed about the latest and greatest. Just look at the recent subprime crises & recession fears in US which triggered the meltdown of the global markets which makes us believe that the decoupling of individual markets is a difficult thing in reality. So it’s very important for us to get plugged-in to the global events.
Again numbers matters the most when making any investment decision. It’s very important to evaluate the business before making any commitments.
Remember that the information is the most key weapon in the stock market .The early you know the safer you will be with your decisions.

Remember that stock will eventually follow the business. It’s just a matter getting informed , being patient and staying rational at all times.

I hope the above information will help you in making better decisions
Happy Investing.

Thanks,
Nitin Mahalle

Disclaimer: The opinions /views present in the above blog do not reflect any personal interest and are purely based on the renowned thoughts.

20-20@Sensex

Last 1000 points rally in just 2 trading sessions....journey from 17k to 20k in no time....

Well its 20-20 here @ Sensex.Sensex touched an intraday high of a historical landmark 20K yesterday.With the way the Indian markets have performed in the recent times its evident that we are in the strong bull market.In this leg of run every time the markets have surprised us on the upside(just like the Indian cricket team winning T-T world cup) .

Indians have a reason to be proud. Hattsoff to the captains of the industries like Ambanis,Murthys,Tatas and so on who have delivered the goods time and again.

The kind of bull market we are witnessing is not new to the global markets. We have an example of Japan where the bulls went on a rampage from 1500 to 40000 and took the economy into a totally new era.

Remember we have a long way to go . There will be violent corrections during this journey and it will test all of us.We have already seen that during this journey and we have also learnt that one cant time the markets but I still believe that there is life beyond 20k .

Wishing you all a Happy Diwali

Happy Investing.

The P-notes Panic...

Right on the opening bell we have witnessed a 10% lower circuit on NIFTY/Sensex. This has happened for the third time in the history of the Indian stock markets when the markets hit the lower circuit and remain closed for specific duration during the trading hours. This was expected on the back of SEBI's proposed move on p-notes participations for FII's.

As per FM this step is one of the series of steps that has been taken to moderate the capital inflows into the India. If Investor thru participatory notes wishes to register as FII to invest in India they are welcome.

This raises a number of questions:
1.Is this a right channel to moderate capital inflows?
2.Is it really possible to moderate capital inflows into countries like India where the bulls are on your side?
3.What if tomorrow the face of the games is changed and the bulls are no longer here? In this case the country would be eager to get the capital inflows.

I think what we need at this time is a really healthy analysis of the current situation from SEBI,FM & RBI and long term plan to address the identified issues which will create a win win situation for everyone .

Markets & India Unleashed...

I think the markets are a sum of valuations,sentiment,liquidity, economy , economic policies & so many other factors.
All these factors drive the markets.Most of the times in short term the markets are driven by liquidity and sentiments however in the long term the markets are driven by valuations, economy etc.
Given below are the various types of markets:
http://www.e-articles.info/e/a/title/Types-of-Financial-Markets/

According to investopedia a stock market is the market in which shares are issued and traded either through exchanges or over-the-counter markets. Also known as the equity market, it is one of the most vital areas of a market economy as it provides companies with access to capital and investors with a slice of ownership in the company and the potential of gains based on the company's future performance. This market can be split into two main sections: the primary and secondary market. The primary market is where new issues are first offered, with any subsequent trading going on in the secondary market.

All about stock markets @http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_market#History

Size of the markets:Analysts at Merrill Lynch estimate that equity markets in Brazil, Russia, India and China represent only 4 percent of world market capitalisation compared with 44 percent for the U.S. equity market alone.

Indian markets have come a long way in the last 5 years so as the Indian economy. Dalal street has taken the place of Walstreet and its not the NYSE , its the NSE which is hot now.
Just to provide some statistics:
Sensex Journey from 1k to 18k:
1,000 pts — July 25, 1990
2,000 pts — January 3, 1992
3,000 pts — February 29, 1992
4,000 pts — March 30, 1992
5,000 pts — October 8, 1999
6,000 pts — February 11, 2000
7,000 pts — June 20, 2005
8,000 pts — September 8, 2005
9,000 pts — November 28, 2005
10,000 pts — February 6, 2006
11,000 pts — March 21, 2006
12,000 pts — April 20, 2006
13,000 pts — October 30, 2006
14,000 pts — December 5, 2006
15,000 pts — July 6, 2007
16,000 pts — September 19, 2007
17,000 pts — September 26,2007
18,000 pts — October 9, 2007

India is long term growth story and one of the Strong economies in asia. The amount of of FII money coming into the Indian markets tell us the fact that this is India unleashed and even the world believes in India growth story.Its time for us to analyse and recognise this performance and work towards strengthening the India growth story.

Chak De India !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Marathi Rangabhoomi

Gelya Athawadya mi lagopath 6 marathi chitrapat baghitle.....
Shwaas,Yanda Kartavya Ahe,Dombivali Fast,ShubhaMangalaSavdhan,Aga Bai
Areeccha ani Ashi hi BanvaBanvi..........

Navin chitrapatatil navinya (direction/music/storyline) pahun mi 1dum
bharawun gelo.......
Nakkich marathi rangabhoomi pragati karat ahe asa vattay.
PuneMumbai sarkhya shaharanmadhe chitrapatanbarobar matahi rangaboomi
gajawanar mhanaycha jhala tur tyamage Marathi natkancha motha hat.
Aaj jur apan swatahla prashna vicharla ki " Bollywood samor Marathi
rangabhoomiche astitwa kay?" tur aplya samor barech prashna nirman
hotil...pun shevti uttarhi aplyach jawal ahe........

Majhyamate aaj marathi rangabhoomila garaj ahe ti marathi kalakaranchi ,
prasaran madhyamachi ( satasumadrapar athwa wegweglya kanakopryatlya
marathi rasikala ajchya internet chya yugat he sahaj shkya hoil) ,
pratisadachi ..ani kitteyk asha goshtinchi jyani apan hi marathi
rangabhoomi Bollywood-Hollywood chya ya yugat apli "Identity" banavel.

1 Kal asa hota jeva marathi rasik mandali marathi rangabhoomijawal yet
hoti....pun ata kal badallay...ata vel ali ahe ...Ya Marathi
Rangabhoomilach marathi raskanparyanta pohchawnyachi....

Tur Mandali Marathi Rangaboomi baddal aaple kay mat ahe?

Apla Marathi Rasik,
Nitin Mahalle

F R I E N D Z

A person is only complete when he has a true friend to understand him, to share all his passions and sorrows with, and to stand by him throughout his life. I thank the stars above for bringing all of you into my life , as it is indeed very true , that my life seems to be much more wonderful and so very complete when I am with u.